In the midst of the recent uproar over T-Mobile’s decision to increase prices on supposedly locked-in plans, you might expect that this move would deter new customers. Surprisingly, T-Mobile is projected to attract even more subscribers than its competitors during the second quarter earnings season, surpassing its performance from the previous quarter.
Financial analysts predict that the wireless industry experienced steady customer growth in the second quarter. As a result, carriers are likely to report an increase in average revenues per user (ARPUs) and free cash flow (FCF) growth in their financial statements.
T-Mobile, which has consistently gained market share since acquiring Sprint, is anticipated to lead the industry in Q2 with the highest net postpaid phone customer additions. Evercore analysts estimate that T-Mobile will acquire 650,000 postpaid phone customers in Q2.
According to New Street Research analysts, T-Mobile’s growth has slowed down in major markets but has been offset by growth in smaller markets. On the other hand, AT&T is expected to gain 260,000 new postpaid customers—a decline compared to the first quarter.
Verizon, following a recent rebranding effort, is predicted to add 125,000 new customers—an improvement from losing customers in the first quarter. This boost is attributed to Verizon’s successful $10 per month second number offer.
Despite these positive trends, overall industry growth is slowing down. Approximately 1.85 million new postpaid customers are expected in Q2—a decrease of 11% compared to the same period last year.
Cable companies like Altice, Comcast, and Charter Communications are projected to contribute significantly to wireless industry customer additions.
Looking ahead to the third quarter, challenges loom for the industry. The Affordable Connectivity Program (ACP), which made internet accessible for 23 million low-income households in the US, has concluded. As a result of potential bill increases, some customers may cancel their services.
Moreover, with new iPhone releases anticipated later this year driving a potential supercycle for Apple products and prompting carrier switches among consumers—September could pose difficulties for some providers. AT&T may be particularly vulnerable given its substantial base of iPhone users.
The evolving landscape of telecommunications continues to present both opportunities and challenges for key players in the industry as they navigate shifting consumer preferences and market dynamics.
