One of the top Apple analysts has made a somewhat disturbing prediction about both the current Apple Watch and its future iterations. Ming-Chi Kuo forecasts that Apple Watch shipments in 2023 are expected to decline by approximately 15% year over year to 36-38 million units.
Here’s the full seven-point prophecy from Kuo:
- The 2024 new Apple Watch will not adopt Micro LED.
- The 2025 new Apple Watch will likely use Micro LED, but it may be postponed to 2026.
- Apple Watch shipments in 2023 are expected to decline by approximately 15% year over year to 36–38 million units.
- The 2024 new Apple Watch will unlikely have significant innovative experiences.
- The highly anticipated blood glucose monitoring feature won’t happen in 2024 and possibly not in 2025.
- The Apple Watch is a classic example of a product that succeeded through repositioning. However, based on current shipment momentum, it may need to be repositioned again if there’s an unfortunate year-over-year decline again in 2024.
- By integrating Vision Pro with the Apple Watch, I believe it can create an unparalleled and innovative health management experience to drive shipment momentum for both products further.
As suggested by experts, Kuo is referring to Apple’s shift in marketing strategy for the Apple Watch. Initially positioned as a fashionable accessory, it quickly evolved into a health and fitness assistant.
